The AI Industry Is Spending $1 to Make $0.99 (6 minute read)
$443 billion in AI infrastructure spend last year. $51 billion in traceable revenue. That's a 10.3-to-1 ratio versus cloud computing's 2.4-to-1 at the same stage. Barclays says you'd need 12,000 ChatGPT-sized products to justify current capex. MIT found 95% of enterprise AI initiatives delivered zero measurable P&L return. The $500B gap closes one of two ways - either revenue materializes at unprecedented speed, or spending corrects violently. If you're building in AI and can't answer what a token is worth to you, you're spending $1 to make $0.99. |
SaaS is Dead, Long Live SaaS (8 minute read)
The SaaS industry has lost $2 trillion in market cap this year, partly due to AI's impact and changing technology dynamics. Industry leaders and reports claim AI advancements might render some SaaS tools obsolete, yet many firms with strong infrastructure or specialized integrations will remain unaffected. While some SaaS products face challenges, AI is also creating new opportunities, potentially reshaping how SaaS tools are developed and utilized. |
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Moats in the Age of AI (18 minute read)
There are still several sources of defensibility even in an AI world. However, the default moat of the last few decades - switching costs - is likely not sustainable. Defensibility is shifting toward cornered resources, real network effects, and compounding process power. Trust is also a source of differentiation that businesses can build over time. |
Be Distinctive & Don't Die (4 minute read)
It's easier to be typical. It requires less energy, and it offends fewer people. However, the moment businesses stop investing in what makes them distinctive, they start merging into the landscape. Eventually, they become indistinguishable and fade into irrelevancy. |
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Enterprise SaaS Truisms, Revisited (5 minute read)
Nine things enterprise SaaS sellers used to take for granted, stress-tested against what AI actually changed. The throughline is speed. Employees who used to file engineering tickets now build entire workflows with prompts in an afternoon, which means shadow IT has evolved into shadow development. That same acceleration hit buyer expectations. ROI timelines compressed from years to weeks, and the definition of extensibility shifted from "do you have an API?" to "can an agent reach you?" If your platform doesn't have an MCP connector today, buyers notice faster than they ever noticed a missing integration. |
Your Cap Table Didn't Kill Your Round (4 minute read)
Investors rarely pass on deals solely due to messy cap tables. Genuine interest spurs specific feedback, not vague excuses. Real cap table issues are solvable with transparency and can reflect on judgment and relationships. Investors who are keen will negotiate and assist with clean-up, indicating interest lies more in the business's potential and execution than cap table percentages. |
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